Ten-month results fuel confidence in surpassing growth target

An electronic component production line (Photo: VNA)

Hanoi – Given the 10-month performance, authorities believed Vietnam's economic growth is likely to surpass this year’s target, and more efforts are being taken to tackle bottlenecks to growth.

Bright spot of economic panorama

Reporting to the 15th-tenure National Assembly (NA) at the ongoing eighth session, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said the economy has been rebounding in 2024, and this year’s growth is estimated at 6.8 - 7%, higher than the target set by the NA.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment said the macro-economy remains stable while inflation is under control. The economy has expanded at a pace faster than the set target, major balances been guaranteed, and public debts, Government debts, foreign debts, and state budget overspending controlled properly to stay under the ceiling limit.

In October, the S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted 51.2 points, up from 47.3 points in September and back above the 50.0 no-change mark following the disruption caused to the sector by Typhoon Yagi in the previous month. This is considered one of the growth drivers in the year-end months.

S&P Global said the Vietnamese manufacturing sector in October started to recover from the effects of September's super typhoon, recording renewed increases in both output and new orders.

The Earning Insight 2024, recently published by the Vietnam Report JSC, shows clear improvements in businesses’ confidence in economic growth this year. The rate of companies believing in growth paces of 6 - 6.5% and over 6.5% rises sharply, even higher than the rate of 17.6% of firms expecting that in the year’s beginning.

Vietnam Report General Director Vu Dang Vinh said the Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently forecasted the country’s GDP growth at 6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025. The World Bank also perceived that the rate will stand at 6.1% this year and 6.5% in the following year.

Meanwhile, the United Overseas Bank (UOB) upgraded its growth prediction for Vietnam this year to 6.4%, much higher than the previously forecast rate of 5.9%.

The new predictions are closer to the NA’s target of 6 - 6.5%.

Nguyen Thi Thuy, an NA deputy of Bac Kan province, held that the Vietnamese economy is likely to reach and surpass all the 15 targets for this year, with a breakthrough seen in infrastructure development and progress recorded in the promotion of digital transformation, digital government, and digital economy.

However, certain concerns remain due to uneven recovery among economic sectors.

In September, 4,233 companies suspended their operations for certain periods of time, 7,410 others halted activities to wait for dissolution, and 1,605 completed dissolution procedures, increasing 2.6%, 40.5%, and 26.8% year on year, respectively. That indicates pressure on businesses is still substantial.

Businesses pointed out that there remain many risks and challenges that may affect efforts to reach the growth target, so it is necessary to take strategic steps and suitable solutions to grasp opportunities and weather difficulties.

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung also acknowledged shortcomings, problems, difficulties, and challenges related to macro-economic stability, production and business activities, public investment disbursement, and power decentralisation, among others.

Tackling bottlenecks

To secure this year’s growth target, Dung said his ministry has proposed the Government focus on six solutions. The first and most important one is to push forward with institutional perfection, which should be considered a breakthrough solution for making breakthroughs.

Other solutions include removing hindrances to land-related projects, facilitating the real estate market, unleashing investment resources for the economy by using public investment to attract private investment and selectively attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), and boosting new growth drivers such as innovation, digital economy, green economy, and new industries.

In October, PM Chinh signed an official dispatch on supporting enterprises to address difficulties and promote production and business activities in the remaining months of 2024 and beyond.

The same month, he issued another dispatch urging faster public investment disbursement in the remaining months of the year.

In another dispatch last month, the Government leader demanded accelerating the recovery of agricultural production in the wake of Typhoon Yagi.

With such directions and strong determination of the entire policy system, many NA deputies have expressed their belief that the country will reach and surpass this year’s GDP growth target.

Tran Anh Tuan, a NA deputy of Ho Chi Minh City, said in the current context, Vietnam is greatly affected by external factors such as geopolitical conflicts and a slowdown in global consumption demand. However, thanks to the strong political resolve of all-level administrations and sectors, all the 15 targets for this year are within reach, including the GDP growth target of 7% highly feasible.

This reflects the economy’s fast recovery and good resilience. In particular, facing the Yagi aftermath, Vietnam has moved to settle consequences well and positive signs are being recorded in the year’s last quarter, he added./.