Exports to the United States stagnate, EU declines sharply

According to statistics from Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s canned tuna export turnover in 2025 reached over USD 275 million, down 8% compared to 2024. Vietnamese canned tuna products were present in around 80 markets; however, the 2025 landscape shows clear divergence: the United States maintained stability, the EU saw a sharp decline, while several Middle East - North Africa markets accelerated.

In the 2025 market structure, the United States remained the largest pillar, with export value slightly higher than in 2024, reaching over USD 190 million. In contrast, exports to the EU fell sharply by 22% to around USD 57 million. Several European markets recorded notable decreases, including Germany (down 27%), Finland (down 3%) and Romania (down 36%), reflecting competitive pressures and uneven recovery in consumer demand. High living costs, a growing trend of price-sensitive consumption and supply competition from traditional canning countries may have slowed the EU’s recovery more than expected.

Notably, exports to several Middle East - North Africa markets surged, with Libya up 70%, Egypt up 127% and the UAE up 302%, alongside strong growth in some smaller markets. This signals Vietnamese enterprises’ efforts to expand distribution channels, diversify customers and reduce dependence on traditional markets amid intensifying competition.

Globally, canned tuna remains a consumer staple with relatively stable demand thanks to its convenience and suitability for retail channels. However, 2025 witnessed significant fluctuations in skipjack tuna raw material prices - a factor directly affecting production costs and profit margins of canners.

Given the highly competitive nature of canned products, volatility in raw material prices may force enterprises to continuously balance between maintaining market share and protecting margins, particularly for private label orders or long-term contracts.

Opportunities to expand markets in 2026 amid rising policy risks

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) assessed that in 2026, prospects for Vietnam’s canned tuna exports still offer room for recovery, but will depend heavily on policy variables and compliance costs.

The global canned tuna market is forecast to grow in the medium term, creating room for Vietnamese exporters to expand.

“At present, the domestic raw material bottleneck has been eased, reducing pressure on processors, especially for products with stable input demand such as canned tuna. However, Vietnamese tuna still faces various policy risks in key markets,” a VASEP representative noted.

According to VASEP, exports to the United States in 2026 are expected to encounter more challenges and may stagnate. From January 1, 2026, the Fisheries Service under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will require shipments to obtain a Certificate of Admissibility (COA) to qualify for export to the US market. The certification aims to verify species composition, harvesting methods and fishing locations of products not subject to import restrictions under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA).

This requirement could increase the risk of customs delays or order disruptions if documentation and verification processes are not fully aligned. In addition, US reciprocal tariffs may further reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese tuna products compared to rivals such as Thailand, Ecuador and Indonesia.

VASEP believes that the global canned tuna market is projected to grow in the medium term, creating space for Vietnamese enterprises to broaden export markets. In particular, exports to the Middle East - North Africa region are expected to maintain strong momentum, with continued robust growth in the UAE and neighbouring markets indicating significant untapped potential.