Early-year recovery, trade balance shifts

The first quarter of 2026 recorded a clear recovery in import-export activities, with total turnover reaching nearly USD 250 billion, marking a strong increase compared to the same period last year. Notably, import growth was mainly driven by production inputs, reflecting rising demand for raw materials and components to serve upcoming export orders.

By mid-April, the import-export landscape continued to expand in scale while also revealing new pressures. According to data from the Customs Department, as of April 15, total import-export value reached USD 297.06 billion, up 24.5% year-on-year; of which exports were estimated at USD 144.6 billion, up 20.3%, while imports reached USD 152.5 billion, rising 28.8%.

Clarifying this development, Nguyen Anh Son, Director of the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, stated that in the early months of 2026, both exports and imports achieved notable growth rates.

“The trade deficit during this period is not a cause for concern. It is an objective development, reflecting demand for imported materials, energy and components to serve production and business plans at the beginning of the year,” Nguyen Anh Son emphasized.

According to Son, following a period of accelerated exports at the end of 2025 to serve major markets, export momentum at the beginning of the year showed a certain slowdown, while enterprises increased imports to prepare for a new production cycle. “The rise in imports is a signal that production activities are operating actively,” he said.

This is also a concrete manifestation of the movement of traditional growth drivers as outlined in the conclusion of the second plenum of the Party Central Committee, in which exports continue to play an important role in promoting economic growth.

However, geopolitical developments in the Middle East are directly affecting supply chains and global transportation costs. “Around 20% of global oil and gas flows pass through this region. When conflicts occur, transportation and transshipment costs are affected, and these impacts may persist even after tensions ease,” Nguyen Anh Son noted.

Aligning with central orientations, expanding export space

From current developments, it is evident that import-export activities are entering a different phase from before. As input costs rise, markets fragment, and supply chains face continuous challenges, growth space no longer lies in going “faster,” but in going “more firmly.”

Short-term trade deficits, when viewed in the proper context, are not merely about the trade balance, but a test of the economy’s capacity to organize production and control inputs. As most materials, energy and components still depend on external sources, any fluctuation in the global market is immediately transmitted into domestic costs.

Conversely, the ability to sustain export momentum depends not only on orders but also on where Vietnamese goods stand within global supply chains. If they remain in low-value segments, subject to price and standard pressures, faster expansion may lead to greater vulnerability.

This issue was also raised in the conclusion of the second plenum of the 14th National Party Congress, which calls for a shift in the growth model toward improving quality, increasing value-added content, and reducing dependence on external factors.

Therefore, the current challenge is not how many new markets can be opened, but how to redefine the path of exports: which segments to enter, which advantages to leverage, and how to reduce reliance on external inputs. This is also the key to maintaining proactiveness in an environment where volatility has become the norm.

From the practical management experience in the early months of the year, the Director of the Import-Export Department noted that the greatest pressure currently does not lie in orders, but in factors beyond enterprises’ control. As transportation costs remain high and energy supply is affected by geopolitical conflicts, overall input costs for export activities are pushed upward, increasing risks related to delivery schedules and efficiency.

In this context, management requirements no longer stop at balancing exports and imports, but shift toward closely monitoring every market fluctuation, from freight rates and cargo flows to partners’ policies. Timely responses to these changes have become decisive in maintaining stable export momentum.

Notably, growth space no longer lies entirely in expanding markets, but in the ability to reorganize trade flows in a more flexible manner. As traditional transport routes face pressure, redirecting markets, diversifying transport modes, or utilizing less-affected routes can help reduce risks and sustain growth.

This approach is also consistent with central orientations on market diversification, effective use of free trade agreements, and proactive adaptation to external fluctuations.

From the perspective of enterprises, the requirement to enhance adaptability has become more evident than ever. As costs and risks can change rapidly, decisions regarding partners, transport methods, and markets are no longer isolated choices but decisive factors for export efficiency.

The conclusion of the second plenum of the Party Central Committee emphasizes striving for double-digit economic growth. Within this growth structure, exports continue to serve as a key driver of the economy. The focus is placed on increasing value-added, diversifying markets, and reducing dependence on external inputs, thereby strengthening economic autonomy and resilience.