Rice exports likely to bounce back in Q2 on price and market demand recovery

Market recovery expected

From late 2024 to the end of February 2025, domestic rice prices and export rice prices in Vietnam saw a continuous sharp decline. However, in the first half of March 2025, rice export prices began to rise slightly, while prices in other countries continued to drop.

According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), as of March 20, 2025, Vietnam’s 5% broken rice was offered at US$400 per tonne on the export market, an increase of US$6 per tonne compared to the previous week. Notably, the price of 100% broken rice for export rose by US$12 to US$325 per tonne.

Meanwhile, India’s 5% broken rice export price has dropped to its lowest level in 21 months due to weak demand and intense competition from other exporting countries. Similarly, Thailand’s 5% broken rice price has decreased by US$7–10 per tonne compared to the previous weekend due to exchange rate fluctuations.

Experts say rice exports likely to bounce back in Q2 on price and market demand recovery

At a recent rice market conference, experts stated that global rice import demand is expected to remain high this year. Though India’s removal of its white rice export ban has put significant pressure on other exporting countries, especially for low-grade white rice, they said, Vietnamese rice has its own market segment.

Since 80% of Vietnam’s rice exports are in the high-quality segment, the impact of India’s return to the market, mainly with lower-quality rice, is only temporary, said Pham Thai Binh, chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An Hi-Tech Agriculture JSC.

Indeed, Vietnam has an advantage of exporting fragrant and high-quality rice, which is favoured in premium markets such as the EU, the US, and Japan.

In addition, limited domestic supply prevents Vietnam from engaging in panic selling, reducing short-term price pressures. Furthermore, forecasts for 2025 indicate that China will need to import 5-6 million tonnes, while the Philippines will continue importing 4.5-4.7 million tonnes.

“Rice exports will thrive from Q2 2025, which will support the recovery of Vietnam’s rice prices,” remarked Binh.

Market orientations outlined

In the face of the complex developments in the global rice market and their impact on Vietnam’s rice exports, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has outlined key solutions to ensure supply, stabilize prices, and protect farmers’ interests.

Accordingly, rice export management must adhere to a dual principle of maximizing market advantages to increase export value while ensuring domestic food security. The MoIT will continue to coordinate closely with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the Ministry of Finance, and local authorities to implement flexible and practical policies.

The MoIT has instructed relevant agencies to strengthen the inspection and supervision of the distribution system and strictly handle violations to prevent price hikes that could negatively impact domestic consumers.

It has also directed rice exporters to strictly comply with regulations on maintaining a minimum circulating stock to ensure sufficient supply for the domestic market in case of market fluctuations.

To maintain Vietnam’s rice position in the international market, the MoIT emphasized the need to improve rice quality, promote sustainable production, apply modern processing and storage technologies, and expand access to high-value export markets.

It has assigned the Import-Export Department to take the lead, in collaboration with the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), in organizing trade promotion delegations to the Philippines and China. The Trade Promotion Agency has been instructed to research and allocate additional funds for rice trade promotion. The move aims to sustain traditional export markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China.