Maintaining the US market for agricultural exports in the new situation

Preparing pomelos for export at Vina T&T Group. (Photo: Minh Ha)

In the first two months of 2025, Vietnam’s total farming exports reached 9.38 billion USD, up 8.3% over the same period last year. Exports to China fell by 4.3%, while exports to the US rose 18.9%.

Many exports with potential

Citing data from the US International Trade Commission, the Department of Export and Import under Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade reported that the US imported 1.48 million tonnes of coffee worth 8.83 billion USD from countries worldwide in 2024. Of which, imports from Vietnam were 96,800 tonnes, worth 355 million USD, down 32.2% in volume but up 2.2% in value, making Vietnam the third largest coffee supplier for the US. The average price of Vietnamese coffee exported to the US recorded the strongest rise, up 50.9% from 2023 to 3,665 USD per tonne.

In addition to coffee, Vietnam was the largest black pepper supplier for the US in 2024, accounting for 77.17% in volume and 76.75% in value. Specifically, the US imported 75,600 tonnes of Vietnamese black pepper worth 414.8 million USD.

For fruit and vegetables, Vietnam was the 15th largest supplier for the US in 2024, with a total value of 619.5 million USD, up 33.7% from the previous year. Vietnam’s share rose from 0.82% in 2023 to 1.02% in 2024.

Seafood is also one of Vietnam’s main exports to the US. According to VASEP, which represents seafood exporters and producers, Vietnam’s seafood export to the US rose 16% to more than 1.8 billion USD in 2024 thanks to strong demand.

Another key export to the US is timber. In the first two months of 2025, Vietnam’s total timber export value was 2.45 billion USD, with exports to the US reaching 1.3 billion USD, up 9.5% from 2024. The US is currently the largest consumer of Vietnamese timber.

Responding to new trade challenges

Since early February 2025, the US has changed its trade policies, specifically tax policies, directly and indirectly affecting the export activities of several countries. In this context, Vietnam needs to proactively develop flexible response measures to maintain this major market for its agricultural products.

Do Ngoc Hung, Trade Counsellor and Head of the Vietnam Trade Office in the US, said: "Vietnam needs to closely monitor US trade developments to minimise risks when the country changes its policies. Recently, Vietnam has gained experience in dealing with trade defence cases through full cooperation in providing information, verification documents, and on-site investigations, thereby protecting the legitimate rights and interests of Vietnamese enterprises."

In 2024, the two-way trade value between the US and Vietnam was approximately 150 billion USD, up 20% compared to 2023. The bilateral trade relationship was complementary, with export and foreign trade structures between the two economies not directly competing but rather supplementing each other. Moreover, goods from Vietnam have increasingly improved in quality and competitive pricing, helping American consumers access reasonably priced goods.

Nevertheless, in the current situation, Vietnam needs to promptly develop a specific roadmap to protect its trade interests against US tax measures. It is forecast that the US may impose tariffs on countries running large trade surpluses with the US, including Vietnam.

Therefore, functional agencies need to strengthen coordination with industry associations and US importers and exporters to build alliances supporting expanded trade with Vietnam so as to minimise risks from changes in US trade policies.

Regarding tax on timber, Ngo Sy Hoai, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), said: "In 2024, Vietnam's timber and forest product export revenue reached over 17 billion USD. Exports to the US reached 9.1 billion USD, while imports from the US were approximately 323.7 million USD (including 300 million USD of raw round timber and sawn timber enjoying a zero tax rate, and over 23 million USD of American furniture products currently taxed at 20% to 25%). However, timber businesses in both Vietnam and the US are very concerned about a presidential executive order requesting a review and imposition of reciprocal tariffs duties on 17,000 items imported into the US. If the US imposes reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam's total export value of over 9 billion USD, the impact on Vietnamese timber enterprises would be enormous."

In response, VIFOREST has submitted a document to the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, and related agencies to consider reducing the tax rate to zero for furniture products imported from the US.

The possibility that the US could impose 25% tariffs on round timber, sawn timber, and forest-sourced products has also raised concern among Vietnamese enterprises. If the US imposes tariffs on forest-sourced products, all timber products exported to the US from Vietnam would be affected.

"In reality, some American customers are very hesitant to sign contracts to import timber from Vietnam, and Vietnamese businesses are also worried. However, we want to emphasise that the timber trade relationship between the two countries is complementary and creates added value together. Vietnam is the second-largest importer of US timber materials, many of which are processed into products that are re-exported to the US. This is a mutually beneficial trade relationship. As such, the association hopes that Vietnam's trade representative agencies in the US will continuously update information and make timely recommendations to protect the interests of domestic timber enterprises," said Ngo Sy Hoai.