Standard Chartered Bank has revised upward its growth outlook for Vietnam, projecting the economy to expand by 7.5% in 2025 (from 6.1% previously) and 7.2% in 2026 (from 6.2%), according to its latest macroeconomic update released on 28 October.  

The bank also adjusted its inflation forecasts slightly higher to 3.4% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026, citing stronger-than-expected growth momentum and easing price pressures.  

Vietnam continues to reinforce its position in global supply chains, underpinned by robust trade performance and deeper integration through multiple free trade agreements. Total export value reached USD 42.7 billion in September 2025, up 24.7% year on year, driven by strong gains in electronics and computers (+66.2%), telephones (+17.5%), and machinery (+11.6%). Imports rose 24.9% to USD 39.8 billion, led by electronics components (+43.6%) and machinery (+33.6%), indicating ongoing expansion in production and industrial capacity.  

Standard Chartered Bank noted that Vietnam’s external position remains resilient, supported by a healthy trade surplus and a stable foreign exchange outlook. After previous depletion due to US dollar strength, the country’s FX reserves are expected to be rebuilt, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability.  

Domestic credit growth has accelerated to above 15% year on year, signaling solid economic recovery even without policy rate cuts. Lending growth remains robust, buoyed by favorable liquidity and government efforts to stimulate economic activity.  

Foreign direct investment remains a key growth driver. In the first nine months of 2025, disbursed FDI rose 8.5% year on year to USD 18.8 billion, while pledged FDI surged 15.2% to USD 28.5 billion.  

“We continue to see Vietnam’s resilience and adaptability through its strong FDI inflows and export growth”, said Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered Bank. “These trends reinforce Vietnam’s strategic role in global supply chain diversification and its strong prospects for sustained economic expansion”.  

Standard Chartered Bank expected the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5% through 2026, maintaining accommodative financial conditions to support investment and growth. The bank also maintained its USD-VND forecast at 26,300 for 2025 and 26,750 for 2026.