The strong recovery and acceleration of macroeconomic conditions are becoming a critical pillar underpinning Vietnam’s trade and industrial activities, as clearly reflected in the Q4/2025 Business Confidence Index (BCI) released by the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham). With the BCI reaching 80.0 points - the highest level in seven years, confidence among the European business community not only signals an improvement in market sentiment but is also closely aligned with substantive economic developments, most notably record-high GDP growth.

According to EuroCham, the Q4/2025 BCI increased by 13.5 points quarter-on-quarter, marking one of the strongest quarterly gains since the index was first introduced in 2011. This result indicates broad-based improvements in assessments of current business conditions as well as expectations for the period ahead. In Q4/2025, 65% of enterprises rated the business environment as positive, a significant increase from the 56% recorded in Q3. Moving into Q1/2026, this proportion is projected to rise further to 69%, suggesting that optimism is being sustained.

The positive trajectory of the BCI closely mirrors Vietnam’s macroeconomic recovery and acceleration. Notably, GDP growth in Q4/2025 reached 8.46%, the highest quarterly growth rate since 2007 and well above the forecasts of many international institutions. Robust growth not only creates greater room for macroeconomic stability but also provides direct support to key pillars of the industry and trade sector, including industrial production, goods circulation, logistics, and domestic consumption.

EuroCham Chairman Bruno Jaspaert noted that the latest BCI results reflect substantive and tangible shifts in the economy. According to him, the BCI reaching the 80-point threshold indicates that business confidence is no longer driven solely by expectations, but is increasingly underpinned by operational realities: factories are maintaining stable operations, order volumes are gradually recovering, and numerous investment decisions are being implemented or are already underway. This demonstrates that Vietnam’s economy has moved beyond a sentiment-driven recovery and entered a phase of genuine, real-economy growth.

Survey findings also highlight a clear link between strong economic growth and corporate performance. In 2025, 60% of European enterprises reported improved business results compared with the previous year, while 82% expect further growth in 2026. These indicators suggest strengthening domestic demand, enhanced production capacity, and improving distribution networks, factors that are generating spillover momentum for trade, processing and manufacturing industries, and logistics.

Against the backdrop of persistent global trade tensions, robust domestic economic growth is viewed as a key factor supporting corporate resilience. Although 42% of enterprises reported continued negative impacts from external volatility, more than half expressed increasing optimism about Vietnam as a destination for operations and investment. This underscores the role of a solid macroeconomic foundation as a “buffer zone,” helping to mitigate adverse effects from the international environment.

High growth also creates favorable conditions for accelerating public investment and infrastructure development, factors identified by businesses as key growth drivers over the next 12 to 18 months. Improvements in infrastructure connectivity, transport capacity, and logistics are expected to further facilitate goods circulation, reduce costs, and enhance supply chain efficiency, thereby strengthening the competitiveness of trade and industrial sectors.

Nevertheless, EuroCham cautions that to fully capitalize on the headroom created by strong economic growth, institutional reforms and administrative procedures must be implemented in a more coordinated and consistent manner. Although the proportion of enterprises concerned about administrative burdens has declined compared with previous quarters, such burdens remain a direct constraint on production and business operations if not addressed effectively.

Overall, the sharp rise in the BCI in Q4/2025, coupled with record-high GDP growth, indicates that Vietnam’s economy is entering an accelerated phase underpinned by more substantive fundamentals. This growth momentum not only reinforces business confidence but also provides critical support for trade and industrial activities, playing a pivotal role in sustaining the economy’s development momentum in 2026 and beyond.