Mekong delta pangasius prices reach historic peak

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the opening months of 2026 have witnessed an unprecedented price rally in the Mekong Delta’s pangasius market, marking the sharpest increase seen in years.

Farm-gate prices for commercial-sized pangasius weighing between 0.8 and 1 kilogram per fish in key farming hubs such as Dong Thap, An Giang, and Can Tho have climbed to around VND 35,000 per kilogram. This represents an increase of VND 5,000-7,000 per kilogram compared with previous upswings, delivering substantial profits to farmers after a prolonged period of losses.

With average production costs estimated at VND 24,000-26,000 per kilogram, growers are now able to secure margins of VND 8,000-10,000 per kilogram. For many households, this is considered a “dream profit,” especially as feed prices, fingerling costs, and financing expenses have remained elevated for several consecutive years.

The primary driver behind the price spike is widely attributed to a shortage of raw fish supply. Pangasius has a relatively long farming cycle of six to eight months. During the preceding period of persistently low prices, many farmers either suspended operations, reduced stocking densities, or exited the industry altogether. As processing and export demand began to recover, harvest-ready volumes proved insufficient, placing upward pressure on procurement prices.

The surge has not been limited to market-size fish. The fingerling segment has also recorded dramatic increases. Cold weather and climate volatility have pushed up mortality rates during the nursery stage, tightening supply. Currently, pangasius fingerlings sized at 100 fish per kilogram are priced at around VND 1,000 per fish. Larger fingerlings of 30–35 fish per kilogram have at times exceeded VND 90,000 per kilogram, multiple times higher than typical levels.

Elevated seed prices, however, have made some farmers cautious about restocking, as they remain wary of the risk that commercial fish prices could reverse by the time new crops reach harvest.

EU exports show modest growth amid diverging market trends

Monthly data indicate that pangasius export turnover to the European Union in 2025 did not experience a significant breakthrough compared with the previous year. While 2024 maintained relatively steady export levels, particularly in the first half, 2025 recorded greater fluctuations.

Several months posted year-on-year gains, but in many instances export values fell below 2024 levels, reflecting still-fragile import demand within the EU. The data suggest that the bloc continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, cautious consumer spending patterns, and competition from alternative whitefish suppliers.

In 2025, export value peaked in March, which marked the highest monthly turnover of the year and surpassed the corresponding figure for March 2024. August and December also delivered relatively strong performances, pointing to increased import demand during peak consumption periods and the year-end season. Conversely, several mid-year months saw declines, mirroring inventory adjustments and restrained purchasing by EU importers.

In aggregate, EU imports of Vietnamese pangasius reached USD 175 million in 2025, down slightly by 1% from 2024. The Netherlands remained the largest importer, although turnover declined by 3%. Germany, another key consumption market, recorded a sharp 17% drop, underscoring weaker demand in some traditional destinations.

By contrast, several markets posted encouraging growth. Spain expanded imports by 22%, Belgium by 10%, Italy by 5%, and France by 24%, highlighting expansion opportunities in Southern and Western Europe. Notably, Hungary and Sweden registered robust growth rates of 78% and 59%, respectively, albeit from a relatively modest base.

Meanwhile, steep declines were observed in Slovenia (-38%), Croatia (-24%), Denmark (-50%), and Austria (-49%), indicating subdued demand across parts of Northern and Eastern Europe.

Overall, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the EU in 2025 were broadly flat, with a slight decrease in total value compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, the clear divergence among individual markets suggests that growth pockets remain within the bloc. In an increasingly competitive environment where consumer demand has yet to recover evenly, maintaining market share in traditional destinations while expanding into faster-growing markets will be crucial for sustaining export momentum.

Exports expected to sustain growth in 2026

Looking ahead, VASEP expects pangasius exports to maintain their growth trajectory in 2026 as demand in major markets, including the United States, China, Europe, and the Middle East, gradually rebounds. Improving order flows, declining inventories, and stabilizing purchasing power are creating favorable conditions for the sector to regain momentum.

However, supply fundamentals remain somewhat fragile. Total farming area across the region currently stands at approximately 6,000-6,500 hectares, a relatively modest level compared with medium- and long-term raw material requirements for processing and export. Without carefully calibrated expansion plans and stringent quality control of fingerlings, localized supply shortages could emerge if global demand accelerates sharply.

Industry experts caution that while record-high prices signal a healthy market recovery, they also mark a sensitive phase. Unchecked expansion driven by price-chasing behavior has historically led to boom-and-bust cycles characterized by oversupply, price collapses, and disrupted value chains. Lessons from previous cycles underscore the importance of disciplined production planning.

Maintaining output in line with regulatory planning frameworks, securing high-quality seed supply, and strengthening vertical linkages from farming to processing and export are widely regarded as essential strategies. These measures will be critical to ensuring sustainable growth and preventing a repeat of the “overheating and sharp correction” cycle that has plagued the industry in the past.

As 2026 unfolds, the trajectory of pangasius exports will depend not only on external demand recovery but also on the industry’s ability to balance expansion with stability. If managed prudently, the current upswing in prices could mark the beginning of a more resilient and value-driven phase for Vietnam’s pangasius sector.