Fragrant rice as the mainstay

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Vietnam’s total rice cultivation area in 2026 is estimated at about 7.09 million hectares, down more than 36,000 hectares from the previous year. However, thanks to an increase in average yield to 6.14 tonnes per hectare, total rice output is still projected at around 43.55 million tonnes, slightly higher than in 2025. This trend reflects the sector’s consistent orientation toward gradually reducing acreage while compensating through higher productivity and quality.

Within the production structure, the Mekong Delta continues to serve as the key region determining the supply of export-oriented rice. In 2026, rice-growing area in the region (including part of Tay Ninh Province) is estimated at 3.84 million hectares, producing approximately 24.34 million tonnes of paddy.

After accounting for domestic consumption by roughly 28 million people in the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi Minh City, along with rice reserved for seed, animal feed and other purposes, total domestic consumption is estimated at about 8.9 million tonnes. The remaining 15.46 million tonnes of paddy equivalent to around 7.73 million tonnes of milled rice are earmarked for export.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment noted that Vietnam’s rice export structure in 2026 will continue to lean heavily toward high-quality and fragrant rice, with an estimated volume of 5.8 million tonnes, accounting for 75% of total exports. Glutinous rice is projected at around 773,000 tonnes (10%), while the remainder about 15% will be rice for processing.

This orientation reflects a clear shift in development thinking. Instead of competing directly in the low-priced segment of ordinary white rice, typically valued at USD 300-350 per tonne, Vietnam is increasingly moving toward fragrant and specialty rice varieties with higher value and less competitive pressure.

At a press conference held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment on the “Results of 2025 performance and key tasks for 2026 of the agriculture and environment sector,” Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), said that in 2025 Vietnam exported over 8 million tonnes of rice, generating more than USD 4.06 billion in revenue, with an average price of about USD 510 per tonne. Vietnam surpassed Thailand to become the world’s second-largest rice exporter, after India. “We are cultivating more fragrant rice varieties, which helps reduce direct competition with ordinary white rice and allows us to build niche markets with higher value,” he emphasized.

However, alongside advantages, market risks have become more evident. Currently, nearly 45% of Vietnam’s rice exports are concentrated in the Philippine market. Any policy adjustment by this market has an immediate and strong impact on Vietnam’s rice sector. In the context of continued volatility forecast for 2026, increasing the share of fragrant rice cultivation to around 70% is considered a sound strategic direction.

Flexible export management

Amid complex market developments, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has proposed focusing on boosting exports during peak harvest months while ensuring compliance with minimum circulating stock requirements. Strict implementation of inventory reporting is seen as a foundation for gradually establishing digital tools to monitor supply-demand dynamics and provide early warnings of risks in the rice market.

The Ministry also requires enterprises to be ready to supply the domestic market when necessary, linking export management with the goal of safeguarding food security. This goes hand in hand with trade promotion efforts, market and product diversification, accelerated digital transformation in management, and scenario-based planning for rice export and import operations.

Another pressing issue concerns procurement and payment practices. According to Do Ha Nam, regulations requiring non-cash payments for transactions above VND 5 million have caused significant difficulties in rural and remote areas. Many farmers must travel dozens of kilometers to withdraw cash, leading some to refuse selling paddy unless paid in cash, thereby disrupting the supply chain.

From a policy perspective, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has contributed to proposed amendments to Decree No. 107/2018/ND-CP on rice export business and is developing mechanisms to manage rice imports, aiming to protect domestic production and the rice value chain amid intensifying international competition.

In the longer term, many experts believe that focusing on fragrant rice, specialty rice and “low-emission green rice” is an appropriate path. Speaking to Newspaper of Industry and Trade, agricultural expert Hoang Trong Thuy described this as a “counter-current positioning” strategy prioritizing quality over quantity to penetrate high-end, less competitive and more sustainable market segments.

In practice, Vietnam is emerging as a pioneer in large-scale low-emission rice production. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, high-quality rice now accounts for about 89% of total exports, of which 60-70% are fragrant and specialty varieties. Brands such as ST24, ST25, Hat Ngoc Troi, and VJ Pearl Rice are gradually establishing their presence in the EU, the United States and Japan.

From a state management perspective, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien acknowledged that overlapping procedures and high logistics costs particularly in the Mekong Delta continue to undermine the competitiveness of Vietnamese rice. However, over the next two years, several regional transport infrastructure and logistics hub projects are expected to be completed, helping to reduce circulation costs and improve connectivity between raw material areas and export markets.

As rice acreage continues to shrink while output remains stable thanks to rising yields, Vietnam’s rice sector faces the imperative of strong restructuring. Increasing the share of fragrant and high-quality rice in total exports in 2026 is widely seen as a key pillar for enhancing value, reducing market risks, and reinforcing the global brand of Vietnamese rice.