European businesses see strong positive shifts in Vietnam as optimism rises

Morning of January 13, the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) officially released its Business Confidence Index (BCI) for Q4 2025, which reached 80 points, the highest level in seven years.The result reflects a clear rebound in business sentiment and a sustainable recovery momentum, even as the global economic environment continues to face uncertainties and hard-to-predict risks.

After years of disruption caused by global shocks from the Covid-19 pandemic, supply-chain breakdowns, to trade tensions and tariff policies, the Q4 2025 BCI shows that European business sentiment in Vietnam has returned to a positive growth zone.Notably, the current score not only surpasses the period before the United States announced new tariff measures, but is also higher than pre-pandemic levels.

The Q4 2025 BCI survey, conducted by DXL Research & Consulting, captures the sentiment of European companies operating in Vietnam across various sectors and workforce sizes.The report provides a comprehensive, data-driven picture of how businesses assess current operating conditions, future prospects, and investment priorities in Vietnam.

More importantly, the results point to a significant shift: confidence is not merely being restored, it is increasingly becoming a driving force behind decisions to expand production and business activities in the period ahead.

The Q4 2025 BCI jumped by 13.5 points quarter-on-quarter to 80, closing a nearly seven-year period during which business sentiment had been continuously tested by global volatility. This also marks one of the strongest quarterly increases since EuroCham first launched the BCI in 2011.

Improvements were recorded across both assessments of current business conditions and future expectations. In Q4 2025, 65% of businesses rated the business environment as positive; this figure rises to 69% when looking ahead to Q1 2026, indicating sustained optimism.

Actual business conditions in Q4 also outperformed prior expectations. In the Q3 2025 survey, only 56% of respondents forecast positive conditions for Q4. In reality, 65% reported positive outcomes highlighting performance that exceeded initial projections.

This trend closely mirrors Vietnam’s macroeconomic recovery and acceleration. GDP growth in Q4 2025 reached 8.46%, the fastest quarterly growth since Q4 2007, and above forecasts by several major international institutions.

In remarks on the findings, Bruno Jaspaert, Chairman of EuroCham, said the latest BCI confirms what businesses have been experiencing on the ground. After years hovering around neutral, reaching 80 points signals that confidence is no longer aspirational it is anchored in reality. Factories are operating steadily, orders are gradually recovering, and investment decisions are moving forward.Vietnam, he noted, is entering a structural transition phase, progressively positioning itself as a key growth engine with ambitions to join the top three ASEAN economies.

Vietnam emerges as an ideal medium-term destination

Beyond short-term optimism, the Q4 2025 BCI reveals particularly strong confidence in Vietnam’s medium-term outlook.Up to 88% of European businesses expressed optimism about Vietnam’s development prospects in 2026-2030, with 31% describing themselves as “very optimistic.”

According to Bruno Jaspaert, 88 may be considered a lucky number, but for EuroCham members it represents a realistic assessment. Over the next five to seven years, if opportunities are effectively leveraged, Vietnam could become an “ideal destination,” entering a “golden era” of growth and transformation.

This confidence is underpinned by positive business results. In 2025, 60% of companies reported improved performance compared to 2024; meanwhile, 82% expect business efficiency to continue improving in 2026.Notably, 87% said they would recommend Vietnam as an investment destination to other foreign companies, with the strongest confidence coming from large-scale enterprises.

Despite improving sentiment, global trade tensions continue to exert pressure. In 2025, 42% of businesses reported net negative impacts, while 24% benefited and 34% were largely unaffected or only marginally impacted.

Smaller firms tend to be more adversely affected, reflecting greater vulnerability to external shocks. Larger enterprises, by contrast, have shown greater resilience thanks to stronger financial foundations, scale advantages, and adaptability.

Xavier Depouilly, Chief Executive Officer of DXL Research & Consulting, observed that despite global challenges, European businesses maintain strong confidence in Vietnam. While large corporations pursue long-term strategies, many small and medium-sized enterprises must prioritize revenue stability and short-term survival over expansion.

Among global risks, U.S. tariff policies and trade disputes were cited by 46% of respondents as the most significant challenges. The most pronounced impacts were seen in demand volatility and revenue uncertainty (43%), followed by rising operating costs (16%).

In response, companies have adopted various adjustment measures. Cost optimization was the most common strategy (41%), followed by increased adoption of technology, automation, and artificial intelligence (35%). Some firms opted to diversify operations beyond Vietnam (23%) or adjust investment plans (19%).

Despite these pressures, 56% of businesses said their optimism toward Vietnam continues to increase. The EuroCham Chairman emphasized that Vietnam closed 2025 with GDP growth of 8.02% not because it avoided difficulties, but because its core fundamentals were strong enough to overcome them.

As confidence solidifies, European businesses enter 2026 with clearer strategic priorities. Business expansion and investment diversification top the list (50%), followed by workforce development (45%) and greater application of technology, automation, and AI (41%).

Although challenges remain, BCI data underscores that Vietnam’s growth momentum, reform trajectory, and investment fundamentals continue to reinforce confidence among the European business community.

Looking ahead to 2026, Bruno Jaspaert said EuroCham will continue to accompany businesses and actively advocate for reforms to remove remaining bottlenecks, fostering a transparent and stable investment environment delivering tangible benefits for both SMEs and multinational corporations.