Rice exports to reach 8 million tonnes in 2024

Nguyen Nhu Cuong, Director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)’s Department of Crop Production

In 2023, rice exports reached record levels in terms of both volume and value. Farmers were happy with a bumper harvest and good prices. Could you elaborate on the rice sector’s results in 2023?

“A bumper harvest” is a term that many people mention when talking about the Vietnamese rice sector in 2023 because it not only achieved high yields but also benefited from good prices.

According to an MARD report, the cultivated area in 2023 reached 7.16 million ha, a decrease of 9,000ha compared to 2022. However, the yield increased by 100kg per hectare, resulting in a total rice production of 43.6 million tonnes. With abundant supply, the rice sector not only met domestic consumption and reserve needs but also exported eight million tonnes, earning US$4.78 billion, a 38.7 percent increase compared to 2022.

The price of five-percent broken rice also reached a historical peak, rising from US$473 to US$663 per tonne in 2023. In late 2023, rice farmers in the Mekong Delta continued to sell fresh paddy rice in the fields at an average price of VND9,200 per kg. This was also the highest price in history. It can be said that the rice sector has seized market opportunities to increase incomes for rice farmers and profits for businesses.

What do you think should be done to maintain rice export growth in 2024?

The results achieved in 2023 are just the beginning. It’s important to maintain and develop the rice value chain to ensure long-term stability in incomes for farmers and businesses.

On January 16, 2021, the MARD issued Decision 555/QD-BNN-TT approving the “Restructuring project for the Vietnamese rice sector until 2025 and 2030.” On November 27, 2023, the Prime Minister signed Decision 1490/QD-TTg approving the project “Sustainable development of one million hectares of high-quality and low-emission rice cultivation linked to green growth in the Mekong Delta until 2030.”

By implementing these project, the Mekong Delta will become a specialized area for export-oriented rice cultivation, enhancing the value chain of the rice sector. Along with exporting rice, Vietnam can also explore the multiple values within this value chain. One of these initiatives is the pilot program for carbon exchange, which not only quantifies the rice sector’s contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also generates certain revenue for participating businesses and individuals.

The successful implementation of the plan requires the strong involvement of the MARD as well as other relevant ministries, sectors, authorities and associations.

Do you have any forecast about rice exports in 2024 in the context of supply shortage in the first quarter?

Vietnam exports 6.5-8 million tonnes of rice annually, ranking second or third among the world-leading rice-exporters. In 2024, the rice production plan will be adjusted, targeting a cultivation area of 7.1 million ha. Despite a decrease in the cultivation area, the plan aims to achieve a harvest exceeding 43 million tonnes.

In terms of supply, India accounts for 40 percent of the world’s rice exports. Any actions taken by India can have either positive or negative impacts on the Vietnamese rice market. As for Cambodia, its rice export volume is around one million tonnes. While Cambodia is also a rice exporter, adjustments to its export plan would have an impact, but the impact would not be as significant as that of India, Vietnam, or Thailand.

Global prices of rice exports are forecast to remain high in 2024-2025, presenting favorable conditions for rice production in Vietnam. If the situation remains favorable, production plans are ensured, and the impacts of phenomena such as El Nino are minimized, along with the absence of major disease outbreaks and natural disasters, Vietnam can achieve an export volume ranging from 7.5 to 8 million tonnes of rice in 2024.