Vietnam's pepper prices will continue to surge in the long term: Expert

Difficulties in branding Vietnamese peppers

Vietnam’s pepper imports continued to rise sharply in April 2025, nearing the record level set in May 2021. According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), the country imported 5,688 tonnes of pepper last month; including 5,209 tonnes of black pepper and 479 tonnes of white pepper. The total value of these imports was USD 36.7 million, which marked a 15.1% increase in volume and 27.2% in value compared to March.

In April 2025, Vietnam imported 5,688 tons of pepper of all kinds, nearly equal to the highest import record ever in May 2021 of 5,747 tons. (Photo: baochinhphu.vn)

Brazil remained Vietnam’s largest supplier, accounting for 66.7% of the country’s total imports with 3,792 tonnes - an increase of nearly 24% compared to the previous month. Imports from Cambodia also surged by 127.8% to 1,171 tonnes. In the first four months of 2025, Vietnam imported 15,374 tonnes of pepper, up 25.3% year-on-year, with a total import value of USD 88.3 million—more than double the same period last year.

This phenomenon might appear surprising given that Vietnam is the world's largest exporter of pepper, responsible for 50% of global production. Yet, the country continues to import sizable volumes from Southeast Asia and Brazil annually.

According to Hoang Phuong Binh, former Standing Vice Chairman of the Chu Se Pepper Association, most imported pepper is used for processing and re-exporting. He noted that while Brazilian pepper is generally of lower quality than Vietnamese varieties, it is cheaper and often blended for export purposes. Similarly, foreign producers often mix Vietnamese and Brazilian pepper before the final product reaches consumers.

Regarding the impact on Vietnam’s pepper brand, Binh acknowledged the challenge: "Vietnam's branding still has a long way to go. Most Vietnamese pepper is still exported in raw form. It’s difficult to find a bottle or packet in foreign supermarkets labeled 'Made in Vietnam.'"

“At a pepper conference, a Dutch expert told me: ‘Vietnam controls 60% of the global market, yet you can’t find Vietnamese-branded pepper in European supermarkets.’ Despite dominating global supply, Vietnam’s pepper remains largely anonymous on retail shelves,” Binh said.

Pepper prices expected to rise in the medium to long term

Discussing the Chinese market, Binh said the country does import Vietnamese pepper, but in modest volumes—just enough to meet short-term demand. This is due to several factors, including China's economic conditions, import-export procedures, and a strategic policy to limit purchases in an effort to suppress global prices.

Still, Binh pointed out that pepper prices in China currently exceed Vietnamese prices by about VND 20,000–30,000 per kilogram (roughly $0.80–1.20), suggesting that China's demand will inevitably rise and force increased imports.

Looking ahead, Binh expects prices to rise as purchasing activity intensifies across various markets. As of the end of April 2025, Vietnam’s pepper export revenue reached $510.6 million—a 10.6% drop in volume compared to the same period last year, but a remarkable 45% increase in export value. The volume decline was not due to lack of demand, but rather supply constraints: enterprises found it increasingly difficult to procure raw materials.

“This year, pepper yields are down significantly due to poor harvests. Domestic prices haven’t met farmers’ expectations, so they are reluctant to sell. Businesses are buying what they can at lower prices, stockpiling rather than exporting. Eventually, when supply dries up but export orders remain, prices will have to go up. That’s how market forces work,” Binh explained.

He added that despite the price hike compared to last year, replanting hasn’t ramped up in major growing regions. Reasons include a lack of available farmland and farmers switching to higher-value crops. As a result, planted area is unlikely to expand in 2025. From now until year’s end, supply and demand dynamics will remain the dominant factor. Global shortages will continue to support a price rebound in the medium to long term.